Key Facts
- Forecast
- Smaller-than-average harmful algal bloom
- Location
- Western Lake Erie
- Issued by
- NOAA National Ocean Service
- Date
- June 29, 2023
- Basis
- June data, including phosphorus loads
Background
Lake Erie has experienced recurring harmful algal blooms (HABs) fueled by excess phosphorus from agricultural runoff and other sources. These blooms can produce toxins harmful to humans and wildlife, disrupt drinking water treatment, and create dead zones.
NOAA's National Ocean Service issues seasonal HAB forecasts for western Lake Erie each year, using models that incorporate nutrient loading and weather conditions. The forecasts help water managers and public health officials prepare for potential bloom impacts.
Current Situation
On June 29, 2023, NOAA predicted a smaller-than-average harmful algal bloom for western Lake Erie this summer. The forecast is based on data collected in June, including phosphorus loads from the Maumee River, a primary driver of bloom severity.
The predicted bloom is expected to be less severe than the average blooms observed since 2002, but the actual severity will depend on weather patterns, such as wind and rainfall, which can influence bloom development and movement.
NOAA will continue to monitor conditions and provide updates as the bloom season progresses.
Impacts
A smaller bloom could reduce the risk of toxin exposure for people and pets, and lessen the burden on water treatment plants that must remove toxins before supplying drinking water. It may also improve recreational conditions for swimming and boating.
However, even a smaller bloom can still produce localized effects, including fish kills and unpleasant odors. The bloom's location and concentration will determine the severity of these impacts.
Communities along the western Lake Erie shore, including those in Ohio and Michigan, are most likely to be affected. Commercial and recreational fishing, tourism, and public health are all potentially impacted.
Future Outlook
Scenario analysis: The possibilities below are not certain predictions.
If weather conditions remain calm and dry, the bloom could stay smaller than average and cause minimal disruption. Conversely, if heavy rains occur later in the summer, they could deliver additional nutrients and potentially intensify the bloom.
NOAA's forecast is a seasonal outlook, not a day-to-day prediction. The bloom's severity could change if significant storm events occur. Continued monitoring will help refine the forecast.
Long-term efforts to reduce phosphorus runoff, such as improved agricultural practices and wetland restoration, could lead to smaller blooms in future years. However, the effectiveness of these measures will depend on sustained implementation and cooperation among stakeholders.
Source: NOAA National Ocean Service
