Key Facts
- BDI chief
- Tanja Gonner
- Claim
- 'China Shock 2.0' threatens German industrial system
- Bilateral trade (2025)
- 253 billion euros ($299 billion)
- Trade growth from 2024
- 2.7 percent
- German Chancellor visit
- Friedrich Merz in February
- China's plan
- 15th Five-Year Plan (2026-30)
Background
In a Monday report by Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung, Tanja Gonner, chief executive of the Federation of German Industries (BDI), claimed that a 'China Shock 2.0' 'threatens' the entire German industrial system. The China Daily editorial describes this as 'a lamentable and deeply flawed example of scaremongering.'
Reportedly, Germany is mapping out vulnerabilities in China's supply chain to use as leverage in a possible trade war with China. The editorial argues that some Western politicians and analysts find it easier to make China a scapegoat than to address domestic challenges such as soaring energy costs, bureaucratic red tape, and slow lab-to-market pipelines.
Current Situation
China reclaimed its position as Germany's largest trading partner in 2025, with bilateral trade of 253 billion euros ($299 billion), up 2.7 percent from 2024. This underscores the depth of their economic complementarity, according to the editorial.
In February, German Chancellor Friedrich Merz visited China with senior executives from dozens of Germany's biggest companies, visiting leading Chinese technology companies in search of deeper industrial partnerships. The editorial notes that German enterprises have long been beneficiaries of China's market and supply chains.
| Indicator | Value |
|---|---|
| Bilateral trade 2025 | 253 billion euros ($299 billion) |
| Trade growth from 2024 | 2.7 percent |
Impacts
The editorial warns that if German boardrooms believe the 'China Shock 2.0' rhetoric and the Merz government sees a trade war as unavoidable, they have 'a curious way of showing it.' It suggests that competitive pressure is a normal feature of a dynamic global market.
Volkswagen has adjusted its research and development strategy based on the success of its R&D center in China, accelerating its transition from 'hardware-defined vehicles' to 'software-defined vehicles.' The editorial urges the German government to abandon unfounded allegations of 'currency manipulation' and 'overcapacity' and play a constructive role in China-EU trade consultations.
Future Outlook
Scenario analysis: The possibilities below are not certain predictions.
If German industries explore the market that has fueled their growth and tap into opportunities created by China's 15th Five-Year Plan (2026-30), they could benefit from a vibrant ecosystem of innovation. The editorial suggests that partnering with China means gaining access to market share and a dynamic environment for self-iteration and technological upgrading.
However, if Germany continues to attribute competitive setbacks to China and ignores its own structural challenges, it may face inertia. The editorial notes that anecdotes about train delays in Germany contrast with China's high-speed rail and metro systems, serving as a reminder of domestic transition needs.
The editorial acknowledges Germany's strengths in advanced machinery, chemicals, industrial automation, environmental technology, and precision manufacturing. It suggests that in fields like electric vehicles and digital infrastructure, the flow of knowledge has become two-way, and the former student has, in some respects, become the teacher.
Source: chinadaily.com.cn
