Key facts
- Parties
- Iran and Oman
- Proposed routes
- Entry via Iranian-controlled route, exit via Omani-controlled route
- Condition
- Linked to lifting U.S. blockade on Iran's ports
- U.S. position
- Progress made, but no finality yet
- Previous agreement
- Interim agreement in June collapsed
Background
The Strait of Hormuz, a vital waterway for global oil and gas shipments, was an open international waterway before the U.S. and Israel attacked Iran on Feb. 28. A fifth of the world's traded oil and gas transited the waterway before the war.
Iranian attacks on ships have largely shut down the strait, causing a spike in the price of fuel, fertilizer and other goods, and rattling economies far beyond the Middle East. The conflict has drawn down U.S. supplies of some munitions and driven up gas prices ahead of midterm elections.
Current situation
Two regional officials told The Associated Press that under the emerging agreement, ships would enter the Persian Gulf through an Iranian-controlled route and exit through a route controlled by Oman, with service fees charged for providing security and preserving the maritime environment. They said negotiations are still underway and that the final agreement could take a different form.
The officials, speaking on condition of anonymity, said any deal would be linked to lifting the U.S. blockade on Iran's ports. Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesman Esmail Baghaei said the bilateral talks with Oman are focused on "establishing safe inbound and outbound shipping lanes," routes that "uphold sovereign rights while also addressing the national security considerations of both Iran and Oman."
U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio said "there's been progress made in those talks, but not finality yet. We're hoping that will happen very shortly." Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent told CNBC that "there is a chance we may have a deal today or tomorrow to open the strait and move towards a more normalized position in this conflict."
Impacts
Any agreement formalizing Iran's control of the strait would mark a significant strategic victory for Tehran. For that reason, the U.S. could seek to block the deal by refusing to lift the blockade. Rubio has previously ruled out any deal that would give Iran control over the strait, saying last month that it would create a "very dangerous precedent" for other parts of the world.
The reopening of the strait could help wind down the war in the Middle East and stabilize global energy markets, potentially easing fuel and fertilizer prices. However, the situation remains uncertain, as a cargo ship recently reported being "hit by an unknown projectile" in the strait off the coast of Oman, according to the United Kingdom Maritime Trade Operations Center. The ship sustained damage, according to British maritime security firm Ambrey, which did not elaborate.
Future outlook
Scenario analysis: The possibilities below are not certain predictions.
If the deal is finalized, it could lead to the reopening of the strait and a more normalized position in the conflict, as Bessent suggested. However, the final agreement could take a different form, and negotiations are still underway.
If the U.S. refuses to lift the blockade, the deal may collapse, as happened with an interim agreement reached in June. That agreement collapsed over escalating hostilities focused on the strait, and the deadline is around two weeks away.
Trump has said the U.S. is in talks with Iran, calling it Tehran's "last chance" to reach a deal and avoid another U.S. military escalation. He outlined a two-phase approach: "The first phase is the opening of the straits. The second phase will be the denuclearization." Iran has denied it is negotiating with the U.S., saying the talks are only with Oman.
Source: dailypress.com
