Key facts
- Proposed change
- South Carolina remains first Democratic primary; Iowa removed from early window
- Who sets calendar
- Political parties set their own rules; not Congress or Constitution
- Reason for Iowa removal
- 2020 caucus app malfunction, delayed results, and demographic mismatch
- South Carolina's role
- Large Black Democratic electorate; helped revive Biden in 2020
- Other early states cited
- Nevada, New Mexico, Michigan, Virginia
- Republican calendar
- Not finalized; expected to keep Iowa and New Hampshire early
Background
The road to the White House begins long before Election Day, and for presidential candidates, it starts with the primary calendar. For 2028, Democrats are proposing a major change to the order of early voting states: South Carolina would remain the party's first presidential primary, while Iowa would no longer be part of the early window.
The move marks a historic shift for a state that has launched Democratic presidential contests for decades. Supporters say the new calendar better reflects the party's voters, while critics argue it gives party leaders more influence over how the race begins.
The presidential primary calendar is not set by Congress or determined by the Constitution. Instead, political parties set their own rules for choosing their nominees. For Democrats, the calendar is created through the Democratic National Committee's rules process, with recommendations from the Rules and Bylaws Committee and approval from the full committee. For Republicans, the Republican National Committee sets its own rules.
Current situation
The two parties do not have to follow the same schedule, and in 2028 they're expected to take different approaches. Republicans have not finalized their full 2028 calendar, but they are expected to maintain a more traditional lineup with Iowa and New Hampshire among the earliest contests.
Iowa had been a Democratic presidential launching point for decades, but its position came under increasing scrutiny after the chaotic 2020 caucuses. That year, a reporting app malfunctioned, results were delayed, and candidates and voters waited days for final results. The problems sparked questions about whether Iowa's caucus system was the best way to begin the nomination process.
Beyond the technical failures, Democrats also questioned whether Iowa reflected the party's modern electorate. Iowa's population is overwhelmingly white and rural compared with the national Democratic coalition, which includes larger shares of Black, Latino, Asian American, and younger voters. Party leaders argued the first states should provide a broader test of candidates' ability to appeal to the voters they would need in a general election.
| State | Demographic or role |
|---|---|
| South Carolina | Large Black Democratic electorate |
| Nevada | Large Latino electorate and significant union presence |
| New Mexico | Large Hispanic and Native American population |
| Michigan | Major Midwestern battleground with diverse electorate |
| Virginia | Large suburban and diverse voter base |
Impacts
South Carolina's role comes largely because of its demographics and its influence in Democratic politics. The state has one of the largest Black Democratic electorates among early-voting states, a crucial voting bloc that has often played a decisive role in Democratic presidential primaries. In 2020, support from South Carolina voters, particularly Black voters, helped revive Joe Biden's campaign after disappointing finishes in earlier contests.
Democrats also point to other early states as representing key parts of the party's coalition: Nevada with a large Latino electorate and significant union presence; New Mexico with a large Hispanic and Native American population; Michigan as a major Midwestern battleground with a diverse electorate; and Virginia with a large suburban and diverse voter base. Party leaders argue that testing candidates in these states earlier gives a better picture of who can build a national Democratic coalition.
Early contests matter, but they do not guarantee victory. The first states award only a small portion of the total delegates needed to win a nomination. However, they can have an outsized impact because of momentum. Candidates who fail to meet expectations early often struggle to survive. History shows early victories alone do not determine the nominee; campaigns still require broad national support, strong organization, fundraising, and the ability to win across many different states.
Future outlook
Scenario analysis: The possibilities below are not certain predictions.
The presidential primary calendar can shape the race before most Americans vote, but it does not choose the nominee by itself. For Democrats in 2028, moving South Carolina to the front reflects a broader debate over who should have the earliest influence in selecting a presidential candidate: traditional early states, or states that more closely represent the party's modern electorate.
If the proposed calendar is approved, South Carolina would hold the first Democratic primary, potentially giving its diverse electorate early influence. If Republicans maintain a traditional lineup with Iowa and New Hampshire, the two parties would start their nominating contests in different states, which could affect candidate strategies and media attention.
The calendar may determine who gets the first spotlight, but candidates still have to earn support from voters nationwide. The full Democratic calendar before Super Tuesday has not been detailed in the source, and the final outcome of the rules process remains to be seen.
Source: cbs12.com
