Key Facts
- Speaker
- Liao Heng, Huawei Fellow and chief semiconductor scientist
- Warning
- Western chip giants like Nvidia are approaching insurmountable physical limits
- Huawei's alternative
- Tau Scaling Law, proposed in May, focusing on transmission speeds
- New technology
- LogicFolding, to be used in first smartphone chip under Tau Scaling Law
- Context
- Huawei barred from accessing advanced lithography equipment due to US sanctions
- Analogy
- AI value chain likened to an '18-story pagoda' vs Nvidia CEO's five-layer cake
Background
In a rare public appearance, Huawei Technologies Co's chief semiconductor scientist, Liao Heng, warned that Western chip giants, including Nvidia Corp, are approaching insurmountable physical limits in their pursuit of more powerful processors. The warning came during a marathon four-hour interview aired in late July.
Liao, a Huawei Fellow, argued that the decades-long practice of continuously shrinking transistors and packing more into integrated circuits is running out of runway. He pointed to Nvidia's strategy of building ever-larger chips with billions of transistors and increasing amounts of high-bandwidth memory (HBM).
Liao's comments reflect a widely held view that foundries like TSMC and Intel Corp may eventually hit a wall in further reducing transistor sizes. Those companies, along with Samsung Electronics, have multi-year roadmaps enabled by ASML's advanced lithography systems.
Current Situation
Huawei, barred from accessing such equipment due to United States sanctions, has had to pursue a more creative approach. That approach is Huawei's 'Tau Scaling Law', proposed in May, which shifts focus from shrinking chip dimensions to improving transmission speeds between system components.
Huawei is set to unveil its first smartphone chip designed under this framework, using a technology called LogicFolding. Liao said the world will have a clear understanding later this year of how Huawei's alternative approach helps narrow the gap with rivals, when its new smartphone chip is dissected by industry research firms.
Liao also likened the AI value chain to an '18-story pagoda', positioning it as a more comprehensive framework than Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang's five-layer cake model.
Impacts
The growing bifurcation between the US and China in semiconductor advances, Liao said, means both sides must now build their own complete manufacturing and supply capabilities. This could affect global supply chains and the competitive landscape of the semiconductor industry.
If Western chipmakers indeed hit physical limits, their ability to deliver performance gains may slow, potentially affecting industries that rely on advanced processors, such as AI, data centers, and consumer electronics. Meanwhile, Huawei's alternative approach could offer a different path, though its effectiveness remains to be seen.
The exact timeline and extent of these impacts remain unclear, as they depend on future technological breakthroughs and market developments.
Future Outlook
Scenario analysis: The possibilities below are not certain predictions.
If Huawei's Tau Scaling Law proves effective, it could narrow the gap with Western rivals and potentially reshape the semiconductor industry's trajectory. The dissection of Huawei's new smartphone chip later this year will provide early evidence of its progress.
However, if Western chipmakers continue to push past perceived limits, they may maintain their lead, and the bifurcation could deepen, leading to more self-contained supply chains in both the US and China.
The future remains uncertain, and the industry's direction will depend on whether physical limits are indeed reached and how well alternative approaches like Huawei's perform in practice.
Source: chinadaily.com.cn
