Brisbane Lions face history-defying path to three-peat after heavy losses

Key facts

Defeat margin: 76 points
Opponent: Carlton
Venue: Marvel Stadium
Second heavy loss: 78 points vs Greater Western Sydney in round 11
Historical precedent: Only two teams have won the flag after two such losses
Recent winning streak: Seven straight games

Background

Brisbane is chasing a three-peat in 2026, but its premiership chances are looking shaky after a demolition at the hands of Carlton at Marvel Stadium on Saturday night. The surprise 76-point loss marked another heavy defeat for the Lions, who had won seven straight games to get their season back on track.

The loss to the Blues was Brisbane's second defeat by 75 points or more this season, following its hammering by Greater Western Sydney (78 points) in round 11. Only two teams in VFL/AFL history have lost two games by such a margin and gone on to win the premiership, showing the enormity of the task ahead of the Lions.

Current situation

The most recent team to overcome such a deficit was Hawthorn in 1991, with the Hawks belted by 86 and 82 points in their opening six games, before recovering on their way to the flag. The other was Carlton in 1970, with those Blues – similar to the 2026 Lions – having a winning streak ended with a thrashing late in the campaign, on their way to a flag.

And only one other team has even reached a Grand Final after two such beltings, with Richmond in 1972 reaching the decider before losing to Carlton. Speaking on AFL.com.au's The Round So Far, Brownlow medallist Tom Mitchell said there were some concerns for the Lions, despite appearing to be back to their best during their recent winning streak.

Teams with two losses of 75+ points that reached the Grand Final
Team	Year	Result
Hawthorn	1991	Premiership
Carlton	1970	Premiership
Richmond	1972	Runner-up

Based on VFL/AFL history as reported by AFL.com.au.

Impacts

"I think there's alarm bells ringing now," he said. "I think if you put up a couple of these performances throughout the year, it sort of says, 'Do they really value defence?' So, 154 points (conceded), that's the number that's just off the charts.

"They've had 100 points kicked against them eight times this season now and two genuine blowouts. Last year, they only had three games against over 100. The year before, three as well. So eight, it goes to show I'm not sure whether they're valuing defence. Carlton was very good, but that's a heavy score."

Future outlook

Scenario analysis: The possibilities below are not certain predictions.

In 2024, Brisbane became just the second team since 2000 to win the premiership from outside the top four, while a year later it also went the long way after losing a qualifying final. Now, another historical hurdle stands between the Lions and a famous three-peat.

If Brisbane can emulate the 1991 Hawthorn or 1970 Carlton sides, they could still win the flag despite the heavy losses. However, if their defensive frailties persist, they may struggle to even reach the Grand Final, as only Richmond in 1972 managed that feat after two such defeats. The coming weeks will reveal whether the Lions can defy history once more.

Source: afl.com.au

AMRIT EXPLAINER