Key facts
- Citizen population
- around one million
- Arms purchases (1991-1996)
- around $66bn
- Armed forces size
- around 65,000 personnel
- Petition signatories
- 132 Emirati intellectuals and activists
- Abraham Accords year
- 2020
Background
The United Arab Emirates has transformed from a low-profile Gulf state into one of the Middle East's most assertive powers in less than two decades, according to a Middle East Eye analysis. The country of around one million citizens has built a network of influence across the Horn of Africa and beyond, backing various factions in regional conflicts.
The analysis traces the UAE's rise to its ability to capitalize on regional crises, beginning with the 2003 US invasion of Iraq, accelerating with the Arab Spring, and gaining strength amid Washington's declining engagement. These developments created a power vacuum that Abu Dhabi filled with military capabilities, financial resources, security networks, and international alliances.
After Britain's withdrawal from the Gulf in 1971, the UAE emerged as a new federation facing domestic and external challenges. It had to build federal institutions, integrate the armed forces of seven emirates, and establish a constitutional order while navigating relations with Saudi Arabia and Iran. Iran had seized Greater Tunb, Lesser Tunb, and Abu Musa just before the federation's creation, while Saudi Arabia did not formally recognize the UAE until 1974.
Current situation
The UAE's regional strategy has involved supporting local partners aligned with its interests, including backing Egypt's military against former President Mohamed Morsi, supporting Khalifa Haftar in Libya, partnering with Yemen's Southern Transitional Council, and cultivating ties with paramilitary leader Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo in Sudan. It also developed relations with Somaliland and Somali federal member states independently of the government in Mogadishu.
The analysis notes that the UAE expanded its influence by operating largely in fragile states while avoiding direct confrontations with stronger regional powers. However, that model is becoming harder to sustain. Tensions with Saudi Arabia contributed to the UAE's withdrawal from Yemen, while the ongoing confrontation with Iran threatens the foundations of the Emirati economy.
The return to power of Islamists in countries such as Syria and Afghanistan has demonstrated the deep political roots of these movements. Rather than seeking simply to isolate them, the UAE has increasingly adopted a pragmatic policy of engagement with new rulers.
| Year | Event | Value |
|---|---|---|
| 1971 | Federation created | — |
| 1974 | Saudi recognition | — |
| 1990 | Iraq invasion of Kuwait | — |
| 1991-1996 | Arms purchases | $66bn |
| 2003-08 | Oil boom | — |
| 2015 | Intervention in Yemen | — |
| 2020 | Abraham Accords | — |
Impacts
The analysis suggests that the UAE's strategy of projecting power abroad may be undermined by the need to protect its own territory. The confrontation with Iran threatens the UAE's image as a secure hub for investment, tourism, and logistics, which could affect its economy and international standing.
The UAE's involvement in regional conflicts has also created dependencies on local partners whose interests may not always align with Abu Dhabi's. The analysis highlights that fragmented political landscapes have often enhanced Emirati influence, but this approach carries risks if those partners fail or shift allegiances.
The structural constraints of being a small state with a limited citizen population and little strategic depth make it difficult for the UAE to sustain prolonged regional crises or confront larger powers directly. This could limit its ability to maintain its current level of influence.
Future outlook
Scenario analysis: The possibilities below are not certain predictions.
The analysis concludes that the principal constraint on the Emirati model is structural. If the geopolitical conditions that enabled the UAE's rise continue to change, the country may need to recalibrate its regional strategy, possibly prioritizing domestic security over external projection.
If tensions with Iran escalate further, the UAE could face increased economic and security pressures, potentially forcing a more defensive posture. Conversely, if regional crises subside and US engagement remains limited, the UAE might seek to consolidate its influence through diplomatic and economic means rather than military intervention.
The analysis suggests that the UAE's pragmatic engagement with new rulers in post-Islamist transitions may continue, but its long-term effectiveness remains uncertain. The country's ability to adapt to these changing conditions will determine whether its meteoric rise can be sustained.
Source: middleeasteye.net
